Projections
of current and future (2050) distributions of most European amphibian and
reptile species are now available online. You
can download the data at:
http://www.biochange-lab.eu/resources/data
Data are
stored in standard text files with 10’ grid cells in lines and species presence
and absence (according
to the models) in columns. We provide ensembles of projections that enable
assessments of uncertainty.
The
parameters that vary are:
- Socio-economic
scenarios (A1Fi, A2, B1, B2)
- General
Circulation Model (Hadcm3, CSIRO2)
- Bioclimatic model (artificial neural networks, classification tree analysis,
generalized additive models, and generalized linear models)
- Cut off
rules to convert probabilities into presence absence data (Kappa statistic, AUC
of ROC)
Details on
methods and general patterns in the data are provided by:
Araújo,
Thuiller, and Pearson 2006. Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and
reptiles in Europe. Journal of Biogeography 33: 1677-1688.
This paper
was granted free access from Blackwell:
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01482.x
|